Despite growing uncertainty around President Donald Trump’s economic policies, especially his aggressive use of tariffs, the American job market just keeps surprising everyone for now.
The Labor Department announced Thursday that applications for unemployment benefits fell last week by 5,000, bringing the total to 227,000. That’s below what analysts had expected and well within the healthy range seen over the past couple of years. It’s another reminder that, even in turbulent times, the U.S. labor market is still holding strong.
That follows last week’s unexpected June jobs report, which showed a solid gain of 147,000 new jobs far above forecasts. The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.1%, down from 4.2% the month before, bucking expectations that it would rise.
But don’t let the good news fool you clouds are gathering.
Economists are warning that Trump’s stiff tariffs on imports, which were just extended again until August 1, could soon start hitting American businesses hard. The tariffs raise costs on everything from raw materials to consumer goods, potentially reducing competitiveness, driving up prices, and triggering retaliatory trade moves from other countries.
“These tariffs are like throwing sand in the gears of the economy,” one economist said. “They may not stop it completely but they’re slowing it down.”
While job numbers are still strong, employers are reportedly getting cautious. Some are freezing hiring or reconsidering expansion plans as they wait to see whether Trump’s trade standoff resolves or escalates.
For now, the labor market is hanging tough. But if those tariffs hit full force without any new trade deals, the story in a few months might not be so upbeat.
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