With a razor-thin majority in the U.S. House, Republicans are turning to a familiar strategy to hold onto power in 2026 redistricting. Both Ohio and Texas have emerged as key battlegrounds where the GOP could redraw congressional maps to secure a tighter grip on control before the next election cycle.
In Ohio, the law mandates a redraw ahead of 2026 due to the current map’s lack of bipartisan support. That technicality buried in state law has now become a lifeline for Republicans, giving them a chance to shift district lines once again in their favor. And Democrats like Reps. Marcy Kaptur (OH-9) and Emilia Sykes (OH-13) could be among the most vulnerable if Republicans push more aggressive changes.
Meanwhile in Texas, whispers of redistricting have started to swirl as the White House reportedly leans on the Lone Star State to reconsider its congressional maps. A special session could put the issue on the table and Republicans are watching closely, aware of how just a few shifts could tilt the balance.
The GOP currently holds a 220-212 majority, a margin that offers very little room for error. And with historic trends suggesting that the president’s party typically loses ground during midterm elections, Republican leaders know they’re not just playing defense they’re preemptively building shields.
“I think the Speaker and party leadership look at even a handful of districts as really important,” said Justin Levitt, a redistricting expert and law professor at Loyola Marymount University. “Given the president’s popularity and historic trends, the Republican Party is assuming they may lose some districts so they’re acting now.”
Redistricting happens once every 10 years after the U.S. Census, but Ohio’s legal quirk has opened the door early. And Texas, which has rapidly grown and changed demographically, remains a volatile landscape where lines drawn today could heavily influence which party controls Congress tomorrow.
Both parties are preparing for a war of inches, where a district line could be the difference between leadership or minority status.
As these map redraws inch forward, the impact could reshape not just Ohio and Texas but the entire balance of power in Washington.
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