Part 4: A Vatican on the Brink - The Political Power Plays That Could Shape the Next Pope

 

As black-suited cardinals descend upon the Sistine Chapel in mourning robes, the world watches not just for smoke from the chimney, but for signs of whether the Catholic Church will survive what insiders are calling the most volatile leadership vacuum in centuries.

Behind the scenes of sacred ritual and solemn tributes, a power struggle is quietly unfolding one that will determine whether the Vatican elects a unifying figure… or fractures beyond repair.

The Rise of the ‘Shadow Candidates’

Sources deep inside Vatican diplomatic circles have confirmed that at least three factions have emerged, each backing a different candidate for the papacy, none of whom were seen as serious contenders just a year ago. These “shadow candidates,” as they’re being dubbed internally, are navigating a complex web of ideological pressure, global expectations, and internal threats.

The Progressive Bloc is backing Cardinal Luis Romero of Argentina, a protégé of Pope Francis known for his outspoken support for climate justice, LGBTQ+ inclusion, and economic reform. He is beloved among younger clergy but viewed with deep suspicion by traditionalists who call his views “theologically dangerous.”

Also Read: Part 3: The Schism That Never Was - The Hidden Divisions Within the Vatican’s Sacred Walls

The Traditionalist Alliance, composed largely of European and African cardinals, is pushing Cardinal Giancarlo Ventresca a hardliner known for his defense of the Latin Mass, conservative doctrine, and a vision of the Church that mirrors the pre-Vatican II era. Sources say he’s already secured a quiet agreement with at least 27 cardinals from the Global South.

And then there’s the Wild Card: Cardinal Emmanuel Tagbo, a Nigerian-born moderate who has quietly risen as a compromise candidate. He is deeply respected for his theological scholarship and humanitarian leadership during regional conflicts, but has never shown interest in the papacy until now.

Political Manoeuvring Intensifies

Dobblog has learned that covert meetings have been taking place at night within Vatican residences some attended by high-ranking bishops, others by foreign diplomats with stakes in the Church’s political future. At least two cardinals have been offered positions of influence in exchange for votes, according to a senior source involved in conclave logistics.

“Deals are being struck. Promises are being made. But it’s unlike any conclave we’ve seen,” said the source. “The question isn’t just who will be pope. It’s whether the papacy itself will remain intact by the end of this process.”

Global Pressure Mounts

Meanwhile, world leaders are quietly watching and, in some cases, nudging. Reports from European intelligence sources suggest that a “neutral but influential” Western nation has offered unofficial diplomatic support to ensure a moderate successor is chosen. Meanwhile, religious watchdogs are warning of foreign influence breaching the spiritual sanctity of the conclave.

In an unprecedented move, a leaked internal memo obtained by Dobblog shows that the Vatican has quietly tightened security on internal communications, fearing digital leaks or AI-assisted surveillance of private conclave sessions.

What If No Pope Is Elected?

For the first time in modern history, some officials within the Vatican are acknowledging a possibility few dared speak aloud until now: What if no consensus is reached? Canon law allows for multiple rounds of voting but if deadlock persists, there are growing calls for a radical alternative: a temporary spiritual council, or even a papal vacancy that could last years.

Read Part 5 Next on Dobblog:

In Part 5: The Silence Protocol -What the Vatican Doesn’t Want You to Know About the Emergency Succession Plan, we reveal the secret contingency strategy hidden in the Vatican archives activated only once before in 2000 years. Click here to Read Part 5