Netanyahu Welcomes Lebanon’s “Momentous Decision” on Hezbollah But Will It Really Happen?

The Middle East may be on the edge of a historic shift or another broken promise.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he welcomes Lebanon’s cabinet decision earlier this month to work towards the disarmament of Hezbollah by the end of 2025, calling it “momentous.” According to Netanyahu, if Lebanon follows through, Israel would be ready to respond with reciprocal measures, including a phased troop withdrawal from southern Lebanon.

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But anyone who knows the region’s history understands: it’s never that simple.

Since the Israel–Hezbollah war ended in November under a U.S.-brokered ceasefire, Hezbollah has made it clear it has no intention of giving up its weapons without major concessions. The group insists Israel must first withdraw from five contested hills inside Lebanon and end its near-daily airstrikes, which have killed or wounded hundreds mostly Hezbollah fighters.

For Israel, the demand is non-negotiable. Officials accuse Hezbollah of quietly trying to rebuild its military capabilities and argue that the five hilltops are critical vantage points protecting northern Israel, where about 60,000 Israelis were displaced during the war.

On paper, the ceasefire required Hezbollah to pull fighters and weapons south of the Litani River. The group has largely complied with that, but the bigger question remains unresolved: should Hezbollah’s weapons north of the river also be dismantled? Lebanon says no. Israel and the U.S. say yes.

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The stakes are massive. The last war, which erupted just a day after the October 7 Hamas-led attack from Gaza, killed more than 4,000 people and left behind an estimated $11 billion in damage. Lebanon is under heavy U.S. pressure to act, but Hezbollah’s leadership says disarmament would be nothing more than a gift to Israel.

For now, the ceasefire holds. But the clock is ticking. Will Lebanon’s government truly take on Hezbollah or is this just another chapter in the endless cycle of promises and conflict?

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